The Phantom Audience Fallacy: How Ghost of Yōtei Stalled the IP

https://www.sony.com/en/SonyInfo/IR/library/presen/er/pdf/25q3_supplement.pdf

Big publishers are obsessed with opportunity cost. They are constantly chasing the "phantom modern audience" in a desperate bid to maximise their market reach, yet not once has this strategy made them more money than simply catering to their core demographic. In fact, it is usually the reverse.

I have noticed a worrying trend in the 2020s where sequels are built with this exact mindset, using established IPs as a Trojan horse for ideological shifts. I recently spoke about Code Vein 2 and how chasing this phantom audience basically killed that franchise, but Ghost of Yōtei is a far bigger and more damaging case study of this corporate self-sabotage.

The Context: Why Tsushima Worked:

Let us look back at Ghost of Tsushima. It sold over 13 million copies across PlayStation and PC. I played a bit of it when it released on Steam in 2024 and to be honest, the game was mid and stale. However, I understand why it was a huge hit back in 2020. It had zero controversy, universal appeal, and a distinct Kurosawa homage that felt like a playable movie. It was historically grounded and focused on the journey of Jin Sakai. There was nothing genuinely bad you could say about it. That 13+ million sales figure, combined with a reasonable budget, made it one of the highest ROI titles in Sony’s first-party catalogue this decade.

Sony already possessed the blueprint for universal appeal. Then they decided to throw it away to chase a modern audience that does not exist.

The "Success" That Wasn't:

Ghost of Yōtei launched in October 2025 and hit 3.3 million sales in the first month. On paper that sounds great. Since Sucker Punch reused the engine and assets, the development cost was kept relatively low and likely hovered around the $60m mark for production. It turned a profit almost immediately.

But if you look closer at the holiday data, that 3.3 million figure is at a wall.

The Bundle Desperation & Hardware Failure:

We passed through a historically "dry year" for PlayStation exclusives. Yōtei was the only major holiday title available. Yet the Q3 financial report from February 2026 reveals a disaster where PS5 console sales dropped by nearly 16% compared to the previous year.

This proves that Ghost of Yōtei failed as a "system seller" because people who didn't already own a PS5 were not convinced to buy one for Atsu.

Even worse is that a significant chunk of those post-3.3m sales were artificially boosted during Black Friday, where Sony aggressively pushed the Ghost of Yōtei Console Bundle with a massive discount. They were effectively giving the game away for free or even at a loss just to move hardware.

The "Free Game" Math:

• PS5 Slim Console (Disc) MSRP: ~$499 / £479
• Ghost of Yotei Launch Price: $70 / £70
• Total Value: ~$570 / £550

The Holiday Deal (Black Friday 2025): Sony sold the Ghost of Yotei PS5 Slim Bundle for $499 / £479 (and some UK retailers like Currys/Argos even dropped it to £429).

• The Reality: The consumer paid the exact same price (or less) for the bundle as they would have for the console alone.
• The Result: The copy of Ghost of Yotei was effectively valued at $£0.00.

The Retail Crash and The TLOU 2 Effect:

The most damning evidence of the "Wall" is the pricing. Just five months post-launch, the resale value of physical copies has already crashed by over 30%. You can find used copies piling up on eBay and trade-in shelves for $45 or less.

This mirrors the trajectory of The Last of Us Part 2 where a controversial narrative led to high initial pre-orders followed by a total collapse in demand. We are seeing permanent "yellow sticker" discounts. Compare this to Elden Ring or Nintendo titles which hold their full value for years. When the price plummets this fast it means the market has rejected the product.

The Core Problems:

So what went wrong? It is a mix of arrogance and malicious incompetence.

First is the PR disaster. The casting of Erika Ishii and the "don't like it, don't buy it" attitude from executives alienated the core fanbase before launch.

Second is the "girlboss" writing. Atsu lacks the struggle and nuance of Jin Sakai. She feels like a modern Californian writer's self-insert transported to 1603 who lectures the player on morality while killing hundreds.

Third is stagnation. It is essentially Tsushima 1.5 with reused assets and the same gameplay loop but without the character people actually liked.

They deliberately severed the universal appeal of the IP. Who in their right mind thought making a historically grounded samurai game controversial was the way to attract more people? They thought people bought the "Ghost" brand when in reality the audience wanted the fantasy of being a cool samurai living in history.